Assessing Impacts From Climate Change on Local Social-ecological Systems in ContextsWhere Information is Lacking: An Expert Elicitation in the Bolivian Altiplano


Santiago Guerrero  (por CINVE, DINAMA, Banco de México)

Adán L. Martínez-Cruz (por CIDE y CEPE)

Miriam Juárez-Torres (por Banco de México)

A b s t r a c t
Assessment of the expected impacts from climate change is an essential input for agencies engaged in fostering
adaptation of local social-ecological systems. However, data is seldom available at the required scale. This study
overcomes this hurdle by gathering data via an expert elicitation protocol. We report experts’ judgements about
two topics: i) the impacts from climate change on crop yields in three communities located in the Bolivian Altiplano;
and ii) the effectiveness of specific irrigation techniques in mitigating the impacts from climate change in
the communities under study. Our gathered data allowus to document heterogeneity of expected impacts across
communities –with one community expected to experience an increase in yields under wet climate change scenarios.
Experts judge irrigation as an effective mitigation tool undermost of the dry climate change scenarios presented
to them. We believe that our data collection strategy represents a promising decision support tool for a
wide range of public policy issues. Particularly, when monetary and time constraints converge with the lack of
scientific information. In addition, the information gatheredwith this methodology can be incorporated into participatory
methodologies gathering information from local social-ecological systems.

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