Quantitative methods for analysis and forecast of Uruguayan industrial activity

This paper presents a set of statistical-econometric models for the
Physical Volume Index (IVF) of the Uruguayan manufacturing industry. They are considered
monthly data for the period between 1985 and 2003. They are provided
estimates of univariate time series models with Intervention Analysis and
Multivariate Transfer Function in which the influence is analyzed and quantified
of Holy Week, Carnival Week, the so-called Calendar Effect, the holidays
nationals and general strikes. The representative index is modeled
of the total industry (excluding the oil refinery) and a sector disaggregation
prepared according to the commercial specialization pattern of each of the branches
Industrial The results obtained indicate that the disaggregated analysis allows a
better understanding of the behavior of industrial activity and that contributes to
Improve prediction accuracy.


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