Diego Aboal and Gonzalo Zunino published the article entitled Innovation and Skills in Latin America in the Integration and Trade Magazine 42
(Robotlución) of IDB Intal.
The abstract reads:
Innovation is key to the productivity growth of countries and has positive long-term effects on employment. However, there is clear evidence that
innovation has a skill bias, that is, it favors the demand for more skilled labor. This implies a great challenge in terms of social protection.
The paper The Impact of Subsidies on Researcher’s Productivity: Evidence from a Developing Country by Diego Aboal and Ezequiel Tacsir has been
accepted for publication in the journal Research Evaluation, Q1 in the Scimago Journal Ranking (SJR).
Guillermo Carlomagno and Antoni Espasa.
The objective of this paper is to propose a strategy to exploit short-run commonalities in the sectoral components of macroeconomic variables to obtain better models and more accurate forecasts of the aggregate and the components. Our main contribution concerns cases in which the number of components is large so that traditional multivariate approaches are not feasible. We show analytically and by Monte Carlo that subsets of components in which all the elements share a single common cycle can be discovered by pairwise methods. As the procedure does not rely on any kind cross-sectional averaging strategy, it does not need to assume pervasiveness, it can deal with highly correlated idiosyncratic components and it does not need to assume that the size of the subsets goes to in finity. Nonetheless, the procedure works both, with fixed N and T going to infinity, and with [T;N] going to infinity.
The objective of this paper is to propose a strategy to exploit short-run commonalities in the sectoral components of macroeconomic variables to obtain better models and more accurate forecasts of the aggregate and the components. Our main contribution concerns cases in which the number of components is large so that traditional multivariate approaches are not feasible. We show analytically and by Monte Carlo that subsets of components in which all the elements share a single common cycle can be discovered by pairwise methods. As the procedure does not rely on any kind cross-sectional averaging strategy, it does not need to assume pervasiveness, it can deal with highly correlated idiosyncratic components and it does not need to assume that the size of the subsets goes to in finity. Nonetheless, the procedure works both, with fixed N and T going to infinity, and with [T;N] going to infinity.
The paper “Innovation and Productivity in Services and Manufacturing: The Role of ICT” by Diego Aboal and Ezequiel Tacsir was accepted for publication in the journal Industrial and Corporate Change (Oxford University Press), a Q1 journal according to the Scimago journal ranking.
Authors:
Santiago Guerrero (por CINVE, DINAMA, Banco de México)
Adán L. Martínez-Cruz (por CIDE y CEPE)
Miriam Juárez-Torres (por Banco de México)
A b s t r a c t
Assessment of the expected impacts from climate change is an essential input for agencies engaged in fostering
adaptation of local social-ecological systems. However, data is seldom available at the required scale. This study
overcomes this hurdle by gathering data via an expert elicitation protocol. We report experts’ judgements about
two topics: i) the impacts from climate change on crop yields in three communities located in the Bolivian Altiplano;
and ii) the effectiveness of specific irrigation techniques in mitigating the impacts from climate change in
the communities under study. Our gathered data allowus to document heterogeneity of expected impacts across
communities –with one community expected to experience an increase in yields under wet climate change scenarios.
Experts judge irrigation as an effective mitigation tool undermost of the dry climate change scenarios presented
to them. We believe that our data collection strategy represents a promising decision support tool for a
wide range of public policy issues. Particularly, when monetary and time constraints converge with the lack of
scientific information. In addition, the information gatheredwith this methodology can be incorporated into participatory
methodologies gathering information from local social-ecological systems.
The paper “Do Heterogeneous Countries Respond Differently to Oil Price Shocks?” of Santiago Guerrero (CINVE y DYNAMA), has been accepted for presentation, at the XVIII World Congress of the International Economic Association.
The XVIII World Congress will be held in the Sheraton and Camino Real hotels in the Santa Fe area, Mexico City, Mexico, between Monday 19 and Friday 23 June 2017
International journal of transport economics, issn 0391-8440 · e-issn 1724-2185, vol. xliii · no. 4 · november 2016
Juan Gabriel Brida, Martín Alberto Rodríguez-Brindis, Bibiana Lanzilotta, Silvia Rodríguez-Collazo
Abstract :
This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between Mexican air transport
expansion and economic growth. To this end, non-parametric cointegration techniques and
non-parametric causality tests are introduced and applied to quarterly data of GDP and
number of air passengers in Mexico for the period 1995-2013. These procedures allow to
test the existence of long run relationship between the variables and to decide whether the
model is linear or not. The empirical results show the existence of a cointegration relationship
between air transport and economic growth, and that this relationship is linear. In addition,
the nonparametric causality tests conirm bidirectional causality between transport
and growth.
The paper Technological Content of Exports by Diego Aboal, Valeria Arza (CONICET and CENIT/UNTREF) and Flavia Rovira was accepted for publication in the journal Economics of Innovation and New Technology (Q1 in the Journal Citation Reports).
“Large-scale mining in a small developing country: macroeconomic impacts of revenue allocation policies”,
Resources Policy 46 (2016), pp. 433- 443.
Authors:
Cecilia Llambi, Marcelo Perera, Flavia Rovira, Carmen Estrades
If fulfilled, the plan to start exploiting iron ore reserves at a large-scale in Uruguay would attract the country’s largest foreign direct investment and would change the productive structure of the country, historically based on agricultural and livestock production. The prospective of large-scale mining could increase public revenue by taxing the activity. However, as the “natural resources’ curse” hypothesis states, there may be some negative effects associated to the exploitation of natural resources: Dutch disease phenomenon, high-income volatility of resources, rent seizing, among others. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact that the exploitation of iron ore reserves might have on the Uruguayan economy, and to discuss different policy options in order to make use of funds derived from the activity. To do so, we apply a dynamic general equilibrium model, and we simulate different revenue allocation policies. Our results show that, even when the exploitation of iron ores reserves might lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency and thus have a negative impact on traditional export sectors, the magnitude of the effect would not be significant, and it would not adversely affect the long-term growth rate. The negative impact can be mitigated with the creation of an intergenerational investment fund, especially when a higher part of it is destined to foreign assets. Destining a high part of the fund to investment in infrastructure also contributes to boost the growth in GDP linked to the introduction of a large-scale mining activity in the country.
