Fiscal sustainability in Uruguay in an international crisis context

The recent financial shock transmitted to the Uruguayan economy from international financial markets will generate various macroeconomic consequences; These include the effects on fiscal balances and debt sustainability indicators.

The main objective of this research is to build a methodology that enriches traditional Uruguayan public debt sustainability analyzes by quantifying the vulnerability of fiscal sustainability indicators to changes in the relevant variables that determine their trajectory. The application of SVAR techniques allowed us to consider, on the one hand, the interactions between the relevant variables for the study of sustainability, and on the other, identify the effects that the primary economic innovations generate on these variables and therefore on the trajectory of the indicators of fiscal sustainability.

In the empirical approach, special emphasis was placed on the identification of international financial shocks and the quantification of their effects on debt sustainability. In this way, in addition to estimating the effects of the financial shock on sustainability, it was possible to compare its importance with respect to the rest of the primary shocks identified.


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